Fuss FK, Weizman Y, Tan AM. COVID-19 Pandemic: How Effective Are Preventive Control Measures and Is a Complete Lockdown Justified? A Comparison of Countries and States. COVID. 2022; 2(1):18-46. https://doi.org/10.3390/covid2010003
Abstract
For fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, countries used control measures of different severity, from “relaxed” to lockdown. Drastic lockdown measures are considered more effective but also have a negative impact on the economy. When comparing the financial value of lost lives to the losses of an economic disaster, the better option seems to be lockdown measures. We developed a new parameter, the effectiveness of control measures, calculated from the 2nd time derivative of daily case data, for 92 countries, states and provinces. We compared this parameter, and also the mortality during and after the effective phase, for countries with and without lockdowns measures by means of the Mann–Whitney test. We did not find any statistically significant difference in the effectiveness between countries with and without lockdowns (p > 0.76). There was also no significant difference in mortality during the effective phase (p > 0.1); however, a significant difference after the effective phase, with higher mortality for lockdown countries, was identified. The effectiveness correlated well with a parameter derived from the reproductive number (R2 = 0.9480). The average duration of the effective phase was 17.3 ± 10.5 days. The results indicated that lockdown measures are not necessarily superior to relaxed measures, which in turn are not necessarily a recipe for failure. Relaxed measures are, however, more economy-friendly. View Full-Text