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A Cross-Country Analysis of the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Reducing Mortality Rates within the EU


We use a linear mixed model in order to estimate the effect of the number of people vaccinated against COVID-19 on the overall death toll on a monthly basis. We limit our analysis for the duration of the year 2021 and within 25 countries which are current or former (UK) members of the EU since these countries follow similar approaches to testing and reporting different COVID-19 related statistics. We explored the effect in question by comparing the total number of people vaccinated up to the end of each month and the total number of deaths occurring during the next month while controlling for several measures including number of new COVID-19 cases, diabetes prevalence, cardio vascular death rates and time trends among others. Our results indicated that one percentage point monthly increase in the total number of vaccinated people was associated, on average, with a decrease of two deaths per general population of 1 million for the next month with the effect being highly significant.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This study did not receive any funding.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.


I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.


I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).


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Paper in collection COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv

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